The NFL season is rolling along, and Week 11 features a number of edges to attack for moneyline, spread, and over/under bettors.
Every week, I break down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. BetQL’s NFL Model has gone 86-38 (69.4 percent) on 4-star and 5-star NFL bets over the past month, including 19-7 (73.1 percent) in Week 10.
All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week
Steelers -10.5 at Jaguars
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers (9-0) have gone 51-30 ATS vs. passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game. The Jaguars (1-8) have allowed 283.9 passing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. BetQL is giving Pittsburgh an 89.79-percent chance to win this game, and the Steelers have gone 7-2 ATS this season, a delight to those who have backed them since Week 1.
Although rookie Jags quarterback Jake Luton has kept his team in games during his first two starts (both wins vs. the spread), he faced the Texans at home and a Packers defense without Jaire Alexander last week. Pittsburgh’s defense is arguably the best in the entire NFL, and their 10.47-percent sack rate is tops in the league. It should be a very long day for Jacksonville.
NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week
Titans +215 at Ravens
Under the cerebral Mike Vrabel, the Titans have gone 12-5 SU vs. mistake-prone teams that allow more than 60-plus penalty yards to their opponents. The Ravens allow the fourth-most penalty yards per game in the NFL (60.9 yards per game), are coming off a bad upset loss to a depleted Patriots team, and have been the focus of some attention for all the wrong reasons this week.
As a result, pro bettors are hammering Tennessee’s moneyline. As of Friday, 96 percent of total money wagered backed the Titans to win, per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard. Both teams have a lot to prove despite their 6-3 records, but at plus-215, it’s difficult not to like the upside that you can get by backing the Titans.
NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week
OVER 47.5: Cowboys at Vikings
As mentioned above, BetQL’s model has gone 86-38 (69.4 percent) on 4-star and 5-star NFL bets over the last month. That includes 19-7 (73.1 percent) on 4-star and 5-star Week 10 NFL bets and 36-17 (67.9 percent) on 4-star and 5-star NFL bets over the last two weeks. All of that is relevant because OVER 47.5 is a 5-star bet in BetQL’s NFL Model!
BetQL projects the Vikings to win by more than a touchdown, and for these teams to cross the 50-point total threshold, as well. With Andy Dalton back, the Cowboys should be able to have some success moving the football down the field, and with Dalvin Cook healthy, Minnesota’s rushing attack should be able to wreak havoc on Dallas’ defense.
Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 11 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!